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John's Journal

Conquering FOMO


Day 18
January

See The World Like A Poet And An Artist

John BoyUk, 18 January

"Pass through this brief patch of time in harmony with nature, and come to your final resting place gracefully, just as a ripened olive might drop, praising the earth that nourished it and grateful to the tree that gave it growth."
— Marcus Aurelius, Meditations

Today's daily stoic can't really be compared to what we do as traders. The only comparison I can think of that comes from my trading journey, is in the last couple of lines. "There is clarity (and joy) in seeing what others can't see." Let me explain what I mean here. When I started football trading a few years ago, the popular strategies (and they are still popular today) were lay the draw, backing or laying the fav at certain times and trading the over 2.5 goals market. I was trying to think outside of the box shall we say and I started looking at the odds on the 3.5 goals market, but laying overs, rather than backing overs. The liquidity was ok but it wasn't at the level of the over 2.5 market as it was a lot less popular. It was still decent enough to trade though. Everybody wants to see goals scored in football matches right? Well I was looking at goals not being scored early on in games, when at the time most people were betting/trading on goals to be scored. So basically I was going against the grain and I was seeing things that the majority weren't seeing, because they were looking for the opposite to me (goals being scored).

It was the same with trading horse racing. I started out B2L taking profits from front runners (dobbing or taking X amount of ticks profit). I found that the good trades were good, but if a horse started slowly, the odds would fly out far too quickly to be able to take a more controlled red and my bank would suffer, usually putting me back to square one again. From decent profits to a loss that would wipe out a few days profits! Then I had my light bulb moment and thought what if I can turn this on it's head and look at L2b early on in a race! Only one horse can win a race and after studying, I found that with L2b the odds took longer to steam in even if a selection started well. As long as I was out early enough if things weren't going to plan, I could protect my bank and all the other occasions I would be profitable. This in turn stopped the erratic regular profits, followed by an occasional bigger loss. So again it was thinking outside the box at the time and going against the crowd you could say! So basically there was "clarity (and joy) in seeing what others couldn't see." Or you could say what others weren't looking for. After all you can't see what you are not looking for! So try seeing the "trading" world a little bit different at times, by thinking outside the box and looking for fresh ideas that could give you an advantage as a trader.

A quote by American investor John Neff always sticks in my mind and I use it quite often; "It's not always easy to do what's not popular, but that's where you make your money."

Food for thought maybe?


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