Mishtips 3
Manchester City v Tottenham (23/11/24)
"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe."
— Abraham Lincoln
The third instalment in Mish's series of football game profiles for betting and trading continues to explore how to analyse matches effectively using statistical insights. While Mishtips aren't direct betting tips, they provide practical demonstrations of how to interpret data to uncover trends and patterns that might otherwise go unnoticed. By applying this approach, Mish shows how we can make more informed decisions when betting or trading on football. All statistics are sourced from sports-iq.co.uk. If you encounter any unfamiliar terms or abbreviations, simply open any game on sports-iq.co.uk and click the question mark icon next to the term for a detailed explanation.
Home PPG: 2.09
Home PPG L8: 1.75
Home Opp PPG L8: 1.22
Away PPG: 1.45
Away PPG L8: 1.5
Away Opp PPG L8: 1.25
From this analysis, we can observe that the home team has experienced a significant drop in form, while the away team has shown a slight improvement. Both teams have similar PPG (Points Per Game) over their last eight fixtures and are performing similarly in terms of overall form. However, the home team has faced relatively easier opponents during this period, suggesting the away team may hold an advantage heading into this fixture.
Home Offence Index: 2
Home Defence Index: 7
Away Offence Index: 1
Away Defence Index: 6
H v A: 2
From analysing the offensive and defensive stats, it's clear that the away team has a slight edge overall. While both teams are similar in terms of offensive and defensive capabilities, the away team's attack is marginally stronger, suggesting they may hold a slight advantage. However, the overall level of both teams is comparable.
Looking more broadly, it's evident that public perception often overestimates Manchester City's dominance, largely due to their status as repeated title holders. This bias can overshadow the actual data, which shows that Tottenham's form, along with their offensive and defensive strengths, are better than most punters assume. For example, while the standings might show City in second and Tottenham in tenth, closer inspection reveals that the gap between these teams is much smaller than it seems. Remarkably, Tottenham currently boasts the league's best offense.
Additionally, a critical statistic worth noting is that out of 68 matches across the League Cup, Champions League, and Premier League over the past two seasons, Manchester City has lost only eight times—and Rodri was absent in each of those losses. This is a key factor to consider when assessing their likelihood of success.
Interestingly, when I asked a friend for their prediction, they confidently suggested a 3-0 win for City. This reflects the broader public sentiment, which hasn't caught on that City this season is not the same powerhouse we saw last year.
At a price of 1.4 for City to win, laying them presented clear value. The stats didn't justify such short odds, and City's recent performances didn't reflect a team in dominant form. Acting on this, both Mark and I layed City—and we were rewarded when Tottenham delivered a stunning 4-0 victory, further bolstering their impressive offensive stats.
Special thanks to Mark for the tip on Rodri and also sports-iq.co.uk for the excellent data.
