Cloudy With a Chance of Goals
Billy's Saturday Forecasts
Billy is a passionate member of the Trading the Market team, and in this blog post, he unravels the events of Saturday, October 19th, 2024—a day filled with twists, turns, Donkey Lashers and unexpected outcomes, all told over the course of 8.5 testicle-tightening hours.
12:00
The day began later than usual, clouded by unforeseen events from the night before. The less said, the better. But let's just say an accidental pub crawl was involved. And the ointment seems to be doing its job.
As a result, the day started around 8—well, maybe 8:30. But truthfully, it was closer to 9:45. Saturdays are big trading days, and I geared up for battling the markets in my camouflage onesie and headed downstairs to make an egg sandwich: an army marches on its stomach.
After finishing my tasks for the day, I settle at the computer in the office (formerly the dining room). I open Sports-IQ and start reviewing the filters for my strategies. I like to plan and organise my trades in advance, so for each game I select, I open a new browser tab for that market. I then group these tabs by strategy and rename them according to the trade. Today, I have about 40 potential trades, but this number will quickly be narrowed down by odds and liquidity.
12:00
My first trade of the day is on Brattvåg vs Viking II, flagged by my Goal Digger strategy filter. After waiting 15 minutes, I place my order to lay the under 1.5 goals market at 3.0 odds. For this trade, I'm only willing to risk £10 of liability, given my bank size. The trade is matched, and its destiny rests in the gloves of the goalkeepers.
12:30
My next Goal Digger game is about to kick off—Wycombe vs. Peterborough. I place my order to lay the under 1.5 goals market at 3s, with another £10 liability. I do this ahead of the 15-minute mark since I have two other games kicking off at 12:30 that I plan to trade.
Next up are Preston vs. Coventry and Cardiff vs. Plymouth for the Lay the Under 3.5 strategy. I'm using John and Mark's 12-tick version that James demonstrated in his video. Instead of laying, I've opted to back the under 3.5 market, as I've found it offers better value. I stick with my £10 liability per trade.
In the Preston game, I back at odds of 1.28 and exit after 10 minutes at 1.23, making a profit of 40p (after Betfair commission). While 40p might not seem like much, it's a 4% return, which I'm pleased with. I'm still testing this strategy to see if it suits me.
For the Cardiff vs. Plymouth game, I back the under 3.5 market again, this time at odds of 1.54, and exit at 1.46 after 10 minutes, securing 54p in profit—equivalent to a 5.4% return.
13:00
Back to the Brattvåg vs. Viking II match, where halftime is ending, and the teams are returning to the pitch with a 0-0 scoreline. This match has now triggered my Lay the Half-Time Correct Score filter, so I place a £10 liability lay on the under 0.5 goals market.
I select my next tab for the Athletic Club vs. Espanyol match, which qualifies for the Lay The Under 3.5 strategy. This time, I lay the over 3.5 goals market for a £10 liability at odds of 3.75. Unfortunately, the 12 ticks or 10-minute target was too ambitious for this trade, as the home team scored after just 6 minutes. Following the rules, I exited the trade with a loss of £2.39 (23.9%).
13:30
Back to the Wycombe vs. Peterborough game, which is on my list for the Lay the Half-Time Correct Score strategy. I enter a lay for another £10 liability on the under 0.5 goals market at odds of 5.5.
Much-needed goals come in the Brattvåg match, securing me a profit of £1.63 (16.3%) on my half-time score lay. Shortly after, another goal is scored, giving me a profit of £4.90 (49%) on my Goal Digger trade.
In the 58th minute of the Wycombe match, Peterborough net an important away goal, closing out my lay the half-time score trade with a tidy profit of £2.18 (21.8%). Just five minutes later, Wycombe equalises, making the score 1-1 and adding another £4.90 to my profit for the day. This brings my running total to £12.16.
14:00
It's now the end of the second half in the FC Ingolstadt 04 vs. Verl match, with Verl walking out with a one-goal lead. I place my £10 liability lay trade on the under 1.5 goals market at odds of 5.7.
Next, I switch tabs to the Sudtirol vs. Pisa game, which has been selected for the Goal Digger strategy. I place my lay order at odds of 2.58, as the odds are below the usual 3.0 I would typically lay at, but I'm not complaining. I stick with my £10 liability and get matched.
14:30
FC Ingolstadt 04 has scored, completing my trade with a profit of £2.08 (20.8%). Meanwhile, after just 38 minutes of play in the Pisa game, my Goal Digger trade is also complete, yielding a very healthy profit of £6.19 (61.9%).
15:00
I have a new strategy that I've been using, which we will be making a video on shortly. I call it the "Son of a Pitch" strategy, but I can't reveal too much now as it would spoil the video. I trade this strategy on the Millwall vs. Derby, Crewe vs. Salford City, and Blackpool vs. Barnsley games. I lose £4 on each of the first two matches, but in the Blackpool game, I make £13.15. Overall, this brings me a profit of £5.15 (51.5%).
16:00
I still have the Blackpool game open on the under 1.5 goals market, as it's another candidate for the Lay the Half-Time Correct Score strategy. Currently, Barnsley leads 1-0 over the "Donkey Lashers," so I enter a lay trade on the under 1.5 goals market at odds of 5.5, once again with a £10 liability.
16:30
The Donkey Lashers bring a goal back to take the game to 1-1 and my trade to a £2.18 profit (21.8%).
17:00
I don't have a match lined up until 6pm, so I sit on voice chat with Mark from Trading the Market, and we decide to open up Age of Empires II for an online game. I can't share too many details in case I end up playing against any of you, but with Mark's towers and my horses, they don't stand a chance. 8 pillaged villages and a victory later, I log off to carry out the last of my trades for the day.
19:00
I have two trades lined up for the next match: Sparta Praha vs. Slovan Liberec. I'm using the Lay the Half-Time Correct Score strategy on the under 1.5 goals market, as Sparta is currently leading with a single goal. I enter at odds of 4.5 with a £10 liability.
Also, I'll be using the Lay 1.5 TTM strategy with drip lays. I lay at odds of 1.6, 1.55, 1.5, and 1.45, each with a £2.50 liability, on the under 2.5 goals market.
19:30
Slovan Liberec scores in the 63rd minute, allowing me to hedge out on the 1.5 strategy with a profit of £4.16. This also turns my Lay the Half-Time Correct Score trade into a winning one, resulting in a profit of £2.71 (27.1%).
20:00
Waalwijk vs. Twente is my next Lay the Half-Time Correct Score trade. With the scoreline at 1-1, I lay the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 6.2 for a £10 liability. I'm in the trade for just 2 minutes before Waalwijk scores, allowing me to complete this trade with a take-home profit of £1.88 (18.8%).
I've also entered the Celta Vigo vs. Real Madrid game for the Lay the Over 3.5 Goals strategy. I backed the under 3.5 market for better value at odds of 1.59 with a £10 stake. It took just 6 minutes to reach the 12 ticks for a trade out, resulting in a profit of £0.79 (7.9%).
That's my last trade of the day, and I'm very happy with how it went. I take home a total profit of £37.30 for the day. If I could achieve this 5 days a week for 48 weeks a year, it would amount to nearly an extra £9,000 in annual income. We often believe that to supplement our living or trade full-time, we need to make thousands every day, but in reality, all those little gains add up.
20:30
Time to put my feet up. I order a takeaway for myself and the kids, then sit down to watch Beverly Hills Cop 1, 2, and 3 before heading to bed, ready to do it all again tomorrow.
