Mishtips 2
Ruch Chorzów v Chrobry Głogów (7/11/2024)
"The more you sweat in peace, the less you bleed in war."
—"Stormin' Norman" Schwarzkopf.
The second instalment in Mish's series of football game profiles for betting and trading. Mishtips aren't direct betting tips, but rather practical demonstrations of how to analyse football matches using statistical insights. By using data, Mish highlights how we can make more informed decisions by identifying trends and patterns that may not be immediately obvious. All statistics are sourced from sports-iq.co.uk. If you come across any abbreviations or terms you're unfamiliar with, just open any game on sports-iq.co.uk and click the question mark next to the term for a detailed explanation.
PPG
The Home team has an average PPG of 2.25 over their last 8 matches, facing opponents with an average PPG of 1.16. Their seasonal form stands at 1.67, indicating improvement. In contrast, the Away team has an average PPG of 0.88 in their last 8 matches, against opponents with an average PPG of 1.59. Their seasonal form is 0.86, showing consistent but poor performance.
This suggests the Home team has performed strongly against tougher opposition recently, which should translate to continued good form and dominance in this match. Meanwhile, the Away team has faced relatively easier opponents in their recent matches, and is likely to maintain their poor form, making them the weaker of the two.
Offence/Defence
Home Offence Index: 10
Home Defence Index: 6
Away Offence Index: 13
Away Defence Index: 15
H v A: -12
Goal Edge: 3
The team stats favour the Home team. The Home team has a stronger offense and defence compared to the Away team. The Away team's weak offense, paired with the Home team's solid defence, suggests the Home team is unlikely to concede many goals, while the Away team will struggle to score. Additionally, the Away team's poor defence and the Home team's strong offense point to a goal advantage for the Home team. With a goal edge of 3, a high frequency of goals seems likely. The H v A statistic also favours the Home team.
First to Score
Home: 60%
Away: 29%
First to Score (Last 8 Matches)
Home: 75%
Away: 25%
The Home team consistently scores first, while the away team consistently concedes first. This trend has been steady throughout the season.
Clean Sheets
Home: 40%
Away: 7%
Clean Sheets (Last 8 Matches)
Home: 50%
Away: 0%
This further emphasises the home team's defensive strength and the away team's defensive weaknesses, both consistent over the season.
Average Goals
Home: 1.20
Away: 0.93
Based on this profile, the home team is likely to win and score first.
Trade Summary
After reviewing the correct score market and finding insufficient liquidity, I turned to the match odds market. I placed a back bet of £5 at 1.52. A goal was scored in the 2nd minute, allowing me to trade out for a 26% ROI.
https://sports-iq.co.uk/result-stats/107/2024/1206939/
