Mishtips 1
Internacional v Fluminense (Correct Score Dutch)
"Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win."
—Sun Tzu, The Art of War
The first in a series of football game profiles for betting and trading. Mishtips are not betting tips, but rather demonstrations of how to analyse footie matches using statistics. Using data allows us to make more informed decisions by identifying trends and patterns that might not be immediately obvious. All stats used are sourced from sports-iq.co.uk. And If you come across any abbreviations or terms you're unfamiliar with, simply open any game on sports-iq.co.uk and click the question mark in the top left of each table of stats.
Profiled game: Internacional v Fluminense (8/11/2024)
Form
Home PPG: 1.75
Home L8 PPG: 2.25
Home Opp L8 PPG: 1.44
Away PPG: 1.16
Away L8 PPG: 1.25
Away Opp L8 PPG: 1.27
H@H PPG L8: 2.75
A@A PPG L8: 1.5
Analysis
Based on this information, I conclude that the home team is in better form. They have a higher seasonal PPG and last 8 PPG, indicating consistent performance. Additionally, the home team has faced significantly tougher opponents, which strengthens my expectation that they will win this match.
Offence and defence
Home Offence: 5
Home Defence: 3
Away Offence: 18
Away Defence: 7
H v A: -17
Analysis
This suggests that the home team is stronger overall. They are likely to defend effectively and score with ease, while the away team will struggle both to score and to defend.
Standard Deviation (SD)
Form SD H@H: 0.79
Form SD A@A: 0.68
Form Avg Goals H@H: 1.5
Form Avg Goals A@A: 0.69
Analysis
Both teams exhibit a consistent and predictable scoring range, as reflected in their low SD.
Low-High
Home low: 0.71
Home Avg: 1.5
Home High: 2.29
Away low: 0.01
Away Avg: 0.69
Away High: 1.37
Analysis
This suggests that the home team is likely to score between 1-2 goals, while the away team is expected to score between 0-1 goals.
Conclusion:
Based on this analysis, I decided to use a dutching strategy to cover the following correct scores: 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, and 3-1. These scorelines were selected because I expected the home team to win, scoring at least 2 goals, while the away team would score at most 1 goal.
The match ended 2-0.
